The Russian administration has thrown an emotional bomb of preparation for war into the public domain, the beginning of which analysts see in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector.
Boiler room
Authorities have tightened control over brokers
It is said that the recent searches at Finam were provoked by tightened control over brokers, which are not yet as much in focus as banks. However, law enforcers have information that brokerage companies are a way to take funds abroad, out of the Russian economy. If you look at the advertisements of BKS, Finam or VTB, they all suggest investing in foreign stocks because the Russian stock market cannot show decent results. In many respects this is true, our authorities systematically fuck up the stock market, which still cannot reach the results of 10 years ago.
Our source in the Ministry of Finance (not drunk at the weekend, by the way) says that the authorities are tired of seeing such blatant advertising on withdrawal of funds abroad and investing in shares of American and European companies. Now brokers will be hinted that they should focus on the domestic economy, and they will do it very persistently. First, they will go through the big businesses, so that hundreds of billions of dollars, which returned to Russia because of sanctions, did not make another round and did not settle where they will not be found. Our source in Otkritie Bank told us that the instruction to re-shoehorn in Russian assets has already been received. So no Netflix gentlemen, only TGK.
Hot Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine is escalating after US special envoy Kurt Volker’s statement that the DNR and LNR should be liquidated. Meanwhile, Putin believes that it is with them that negotiations on the deployment of peacekeepers should be conducted. At the same time, the United States gave the green light to the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missile systems to Ukraine for 47 million dollars. Characteristically, the Obama administration under various pretexts refused to supply these systems, which shoot from the shoulder at a distance of 75 to 2,500 meters. It also became known today that American instructors in western Ukraine are training soldiers according to NATO standards.
Completely unnoticed was the news of a joint statement by parliamentarians from Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova condemning the presence of Russian soldiers on the territory of these countries. NATO’s charter prohibits countries with frozen military conflicts from joining the alliance, but now we are seeing a desperate desire by these countries to join the alliance amid a new Cold War. Putin’s message will give new impetus to the arms race, and Ukraine could become one of the hottest springboards to test them. According to our source in the AP, Gazprom’s breaking of contracts is not only a reaction to the court ruling in Stockholm, but also an asymmetric response to the Americans. The gas truncheon is back in use.
Timchenko was given Kuzbass
Timchenko is putting his own governor in Kuzbass. They plan to replace Aman Tuleyev, who has completely overstayed his welcome as head of the region, with Tsivilev, general director of the coal company Kolmar. He owns 70% of the corporation, while Timchenko owns another 30%. The oligarch has recently won important victories in all areas. Novatek opened Yamal LNG with pomp and won the tender for Alrosa’s gas assets from Rosneft itself, so Timchenko can be seen as a man who can be a real hardware competitor to Sechin. Now the owner of Novatek is taking control of Kuzbass, one of the richest and strategically important regions in terms of social situation. So far, Tsivilev has been appointed vice-governor, but the next position is said to be a done deal.
Cello case
1. President Vladimir Putin’s scientific advisor, rector of the University of Mines and dollar billionaire Vladimir Litvinenko has canceled his daughter Olga’s Russian passport through the court. The ex-spouse, a citizen of Holland, demands from her 220 thousand rubles of alimony. Olga Litvinenko fled from Russia to Poland with her son, accuses the father of kidnapping the second child. In the dissertation, which the President defended Litvinenko-senior, was previously found multi-page plagiarism.
2. The volume of contracts for cleaning, construction and maintenance of military camps at the companies of restaurateur Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was tried for involving children in prostitution, has decreased 27 times. 2/3 of his contractors are bankrupt. The claims against Prigozhin are license violations, cockroaches and mold in the food. The Ministry of Defense owes “Putin’s cook” 2.7 billion rubles.
Banksta
1. Anatoly Motylev, the bankster who robbed the banks Rossiyskiy Kredit and Globex, started accepting clients’ money in London. He leaves few traces of his activities – in London he was the founder of Megatrend Capital Partners.
Motylev had at least a billion dollars in his accounts after the merger of Russian Credit, Mosstroyeconombank and Globex. He was declared bankrupt in Russia, and during meetings with creditors Motylev pretends to be a pauper.
2. The Central Bank began negotiations with the Armenian diaspora bank Transstroibank. Its owner, bankster Peter Chitipakhovyan, was involved in the construction of a chain of Marriot hotels and is trying to get out of the billions of dollars in debts spent on the construction (some of the loans are in foreign currency).
With the Central Bankster is discussing regulatory issues – related borrowers, various restrictions on deposits, attracting additional financing (but was rejected). Earlier he was assisted by the head of ARB Garegin Tosunyan, but now his apparatus weight has fallen dramatically.
3. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin took offense at Putin’s refusal to appoint him as the future prime minister (he preferred the proven corrupt Medvedev) and decided to take revenge. He declared that the current president’s economic program was impossible. In order to increase GDP per capita 1.5 times in 6 years, it is necessary to grow by 6% every year starting from the current one. Only China has grown this way.
Oreshkin’s thoughts
It’s a black day for oil and gas. Or maybe even a black year. In general, everything is bad: the Stockholm court openly sided with Ukraine’s Naftogaz in a dispute with Gazprom (a $2.56 billion issue), ExxonMobil is withdrawing from joint projects with Rosneft because of sanctions.
ExxonMobil had 10 projects with Rosneft for exploration and shelf development in the Black Sea and the Arctic. A little earlier, Italy’s Eni stopped cooperating with Rosneft and withdrew from the Black Sea shelf development project. The Chinese from CEFC are also yet to come to their senses and buy 14.16% of shares from the QIA consortium….
Domestic oil and gas is becoming persona non grata in the world, and everyone is turning away from it. It is sad, because in January more than 50% of the federal budget revenues came from the raw materials sector.