Transportation across the Russian Arctic is barely growing, and there is no chance to develop the NSR.
Vladimir Putin’s ambitious plan to use the Arctic for cargo transportation from Russia to Asia and from Asia to Europe has failed.
Last year, 38 million tons of cargo were transported along the Northern Sea Route – from the Kara Gates Strait to the Bering Strait, Putin said Thursday at a plenary session of the International Arctic Forum.
Compared to 2023, the volume of transportation grew by only 2 million tons and was more than half of what was required by the presidential decree signed in 2018: the goal then was 80 million tons by 2024 and 200 million by 2030.
With a length of 5.6 thousand km and crossing five Arctic seas, the SPM allows 7-10 days shorter voyage to Asia compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal. But despite the speed, there were few people willing to take advantage of the Russian Arctic.
In September 2024, Rosatom almost lowered its forecast for transportation through the NSR – to 117 million tons by 2030. As Putin’s words suggest, this goal may also prove unattainable. “We are confident that by 2030 it (cargo traffic through the NSR – TMT) will be 70-100 million tons,” the president said Thursday.
To carry cargo through the Arctic, Russia lacks enough ships: now only 27 of the required 57 are available. And sanctions, which cut off the economy from Western technologies, may lead to the fact that the icebreaker fleet deficit will worsen, as old ships will have to be scrapped and the construction of new ones delayed, N.Trans Lab analysts wrote earlier. According to their estimates, by 2030 there may be no more than 5 sufficiently powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers left in service, and as a result Russia will not be able to provide year-round navigation along the NSR.
According to Putin, the authorities plan to launch a program of building new ports, shipyards and vessels to develop the Arctic. “Russia, as a sovereign power, needs its own merchant fleet in the Arctic, including cargo and salvage vessels that will provide transportation both on the northern seas and inland waterways of the Arctic regions,” Putin said. In addition, modernization of the Russian Railways network will be required. “We will have to implement a project for the development of the Arctic range of railroads, including modernization of the Northern Railway on the territory of the Komi Republic and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, by analogy with the Eastern range, which includes BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway,” the president added.
Despite years of discussions, a model for the development of the NSR has not been worked out, he admitted a few hours earlier at a meeting with members of the government. “We have already discussed <...> the issue that it is necessary to define in detail the model for the development of the Northern Sea Route, to provide its cargo flows with infrastructure and fleet. We agreed to work out all organizational aspects. Unfortunately, decisions on this matter have not yet been made, and the model has not been drawn up,” Putin said.